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What Is the VIX Telling Us? (Apocalypse Now as a Teachable Moment)

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 at times reminded me of “The Smell of Napalm in the Morning” scene in Apocalypse Now. It features Lieutenant Colonel Kilgore1 (Robert Duvall) who in the […]

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A look at what happens when stocks enter a bear market

Wall Street’s staggering skid that began less than three weeks ago has pulled the Dow Jones Industrial Average into what’s known as a bear market. After a string of sharp […]

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Photo of Office Building
Family Offices ‘Surprisingly Quiet’ as Markets Crash

  If you’re not worried, you should be worried, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned in a roundly mocked tweet earlier this month. But that principle applies to family offices, which haven’t […]

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Two people at Bus Stop
Two Things We Know With High Confidence

No one can expect their ability to predict the next year to be any better than their ability to predict the last year. The speed of change anchors the accuracy […]

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Is Asset Allocation Failing Us?

Video #3 of Mo’s daily video updates:

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Anatomy of a Pandemic

TO BE ALIVE is to be afraid; anxiety is the spirit of this age and, substantially, of all ages. However good things have gotten, at least for those of us […]

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Structural Breaks Can Only Be Known in Hindsight

Structural breaks are a b*tch. Just ask this guy. He engages in ‘retail arbitrage.’ Buying up goods from various sources, typically retail stores and reselling them online at Amazon (or eBay) […]

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The Myth of the Panicky Individual Investor

In early 2009 I had one of the most exciting weekends of my professional life. Over the course of the financial crisis I was granted access to the database of […]

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The Historic Sell-Off & a Game of Expectations

To put the speed of this plunge into perspective, the fastest peak-to-trough bear market that saw losses in the area of 30% or worse occurred in 1933. That one took […]

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Losing Perspective Because “This Time is Different”

Video #2 of Mo’s daily video updates:

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