No one can expect their ability to predict the next year to be any better than their ability to predict the last year. The speed of change anchors the accuracy of predictions, so the year ahead becomes a blur when you don’t know what new policies might be enacted in the hours ahead.

The best thing to do in these situations is not to constantly update your forecasts with new information as it comes in. You can’t keep up with that. Instead, focus on the few things we know with high confidence that will keep being true regardless of what happens.


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Author: Morgan Housel

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