person writing on a memo notepad

Howard Marks' Memos

April 12, 2020

In the first of the four memos, Nobody Knows II, I described the distinction made by Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch.  He said there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses and (c) opinion or speculation.  At that point, I thought the scientists were trying to make informed inferences, and there wasn’t enough data regarding the novel coronavirus to enable them to turn those inferences into facts.  I also noted that anything a non-scientist said was highly likely to be a guess.  In that vein, I wrote the following to an Oaktree colleague last week: “These days everyone has the same data regarding the present and the same ignorance regarding the future.”  That pretty much sums up the state of affairs.

Read the Full Memo Here:


Subscribe for future Insights

Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Contact Us
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Copyright © 2021 Prime Quadrant Corp. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy.

The offering, sale, and/or distribution of the products or services described on this website are not intended for any U.S. Person. If you intend to obtain any product or service from Prime Quadrant that is described on this website, you must first inform Prime Quadrant whether you are a U.S. Person. This website and its contents do not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities or a solicitation of any offer to sell any securities to U.S. Persons. “U.S. Persons” are generally defined as natural persons residing in the United States, or entities organized or incorporated under the laws of the United States. U.S. citizens living abroad may also be deemed “U.S. Persons”.

References herein to Prime Quadrant refer to Prime Quadrant Corp., which is registered as a Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec, and as an Investment Fund Manager in Ontario and Quebec.